International urea price rebound is difficult to reach the domestic low season off-season

Since the fourth quarter of last year, the performance of the overall light-storage market has been relatively calm, and the domestic urea price can be described as “a twister”; China temporarily withdrew from the international market, but it did not constitute too much support for the international urea market. Due to the decrease of demand in major markets such as Southeast Asia, urea prices in the international market began to decline gradually from the end of January, and began to decline in full swing in mid-February, with an average weekly decline of 5-10 US dollars/ton, although traders supplemented their positions against the price during the period. Short-term support, but hard to change weak expectations. In February and March, Yuzhny had more shipments and the pressure on Egypt's inventory was also very severe. As a result, the market competition was fierce. In March, the Baltic small-particle urea FOB price had dropped to 295-310 US$/ton, which was since 2010. 9 For the first time since the month, it has fallen below 300 USD/ton. In the bidding of Indian PPL companies that ended on March 28, a total of 83 million tons of urea won the bid, exceeding the original planned purchase volume of 500,000 tons, which also explains the current status of international urea supply exceeding demand.

Until entering April, the international urea market finally showed signs of recovery. Due to the relatively low inventory of traders and concerns about the tight supply of urea in the later period, they have taken positions to purchase. Recently, the price of large and small granular urea in Egypt rose by 20-25 US dollars/ton. It is alleged that local manufacturers would not hesitate to reject the low-end bids made by traders. At this point the domestic market is still a bit depressed, despite the low season export base price of 2100 yuan / ton has been characterized as not including tax price, Sinochem, Yihua and other large agricultural resources companies have begun to carry out urea set, but the international urea later The market is not yet fully clear, it takes a long time before the official opening of the export window, and the key is the gradual entry of the domestic market into the off-season, the market demand is very limited, so, this round of international urea prices rebound on the domestic market support should not be very Obviously, it is not ruled out that the domestic urea price may drop again in the later period.