The two giants increase the wholesale price of diesel over $100

As the change rate of crude oil in the three places turned upwards, the expectation of lowering domestic prices of gasoline and diesel in early September has already been frustrated. According to the statistics report of the refined oil market monitoring agency on September 13, in the first week of September, the wholesale prices of PetroChina and Sinopec rose by a large margin, with an average increase of between 100 yuan and 150 yuan/ton.

Driven by the rise in crude oil and the expected recovery in diesel demand in September, some traders began to replenish. In this regard, analysts believe that although the diesel market speculation and excessive replenishment demand, but the recurrence of diesel shortage is unlikely.

The wholesale price of diesel rose by more than one hundred yuan per ton. According to the latest monitoring of Zhuo Chuang Information, in the first week of September, the prices of domestic main gasoline and diesel oil have all increased in different ranges. Among them, the increase in diesel prices is relatively large, with an average increase of 100 yuan. Between 150 yuan / ton.

The analyst Li Qian believes that in August and September, PetroChina and Sinopec are the two major refinery maintenance peaks. Since September, the shortage of diesel resources and the weakening of the oil price forecast by the Development and Reform Commission are the reasons for the slight increase in gasoline and diesel prices. one.

Recently, the international oil price has continued to fluctuate, resulting in an increase in the proportion of middle-to-high prices in the 22-day average price of crude oil in the three places. The rate of change in crude oil in the three places continues to rise. As of September 12, the rate of change in the three places has risen. To -1.66%.

Zhu Huichun, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang, predicts that if the international oil prices continue to fluctuate in the near future, the rate of change in the three places may turn positive in the middle or late September; even if the international oil prices continue to fluctuate in recent days (falling within 5 US dollars/barrel), the three places The rate of change is also difficult to fall to -4% within this month. Therefore, it is difficult to open the downward adjustment window. The forecast for the price cut for domestic gasoline and diesel in September may be frustrated.

International crude oil rebounded. Domestic refined oil prices stopped falling and showed signs of rising. Analysts at the China National Petroleum Institute of Economics and Technology said that due to the low domestic start-up load of the refinery for several consecutive months, and the low inventory of petrochemical projects, the market supply was not well-supplied in September, and some major units in North China and East China started to enter moderate levels after September. Push price, diesel push up is more obvious.

According to the research conducted by Siwang Energy, as of September 8, the 35 main refinery operating rates continued to decline by 0.51 percentage points from the previous two weeks to 79.66%, still the second lowest level this year, compared to the history of late May this year. The highest point fell sharply by 8.3%, and there was also a 5.7% drop from the same period last year.

Since June, the enthusiasm of domestic refineries has been low, coupled with frequent inspections and frequent accidents, and refined oil inventories are still decreasing. As of the end of July, refined oil inventories fell by 5.47%. Gasoline was down 5% from the previous month and diesel was down 5.4% from the previous month.

Hu Huichun said that this month's petrochemical petrochemical diesel deployment plan has been significantly reduced, even in some areas highlight the tense diesel, boosted by rising crude oil prices will be willing to push, the majority of domestic main wholesale diesel prices have risen above the wholesale limit price , but there is still some distance from the retail price limit.

The demand for diesel speculation may erupt again. “Most traders have no hope for the recent price adjustment. The market will be more confused after the price adjustment hopelessness, but some traders will start to replenish.” Analysts at the China National Petroleum Institute of Economics and Technology said that there is no hope of price adjustment in the short term. The domestic market mentality is no longer just waiting to see, traders operate to normal, although there is no speculative purchase, but the normal seasonal demand pick-up can also drive diesel fundamentals to strengthen.

Treasurer Island market analyst Han Jingyuan said: “After the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the overall bullish mentality is still continuing. The demand for diesel terminal will gradually increase in the later period. Coupled with the approaching National Day holiday, replenishment enthusiasm will be difficult to dissipate.”

"Similar to the same period of last year, the recent international oil prices have again shown signs of sudden rises, and sudden bursts of speculative demand may repeat itself." Han Jingyuan believes that during the busy season of diesel demand in September, there was no surprise that diesel supply shortages occurred in some regions.

Due to the early reduction of diesel import tariffs, plus the rate of refinery start-ups of the two major companies will rebound at the end of September, it is expected that the diesel shortage will not occur again. The fluctuations in the expected fluctuations in the supply and demand side of domestic gasoline will not be too great, and the market sentiment may be boosted by the higher diesel market.