· 2017 car sales indicators: joint venture brand conservative independent brand radical

Recently, various auto brands have announced their sales targets for 2017. The reporters have compiled data and found that after experiencing the double-digit sales growth of the auto market last year, the sales target of mainstream auto companies in 2016 was higher, so this year is still The car market has greater confidence.
In particular, the sales target of self-owned brands in 2017 is generally much higher than the previous forecast of 5% by the China Automobile Association. Even a considerable number of companies have set their growth rate at more than 50%. Fortunately, in January 2017, many independent brand car companies, including SAIC passenger cars, achieved sales “opening the door”.
In contrast, the sales target of the joint venture brand is a bit conservative. The top 10 joint venture brands that have announced their sales targets for 2017 are expected to increase by about 8%. Only GAC Mitsubishi, which has a small sales base, is calling for a sales base of 68,000 units last year. It has risen to 100,000 units.
For such differences, Cui Dongshu, the secretary general of the National Federation of the United States, told reporters that the performance of independent brands in the whole year last year, coupled with the grasp of various policies and market conditions, this year, self-owned brands will increase their confidence. However, many joint venture brands lack relatively SUV products and new models, so the target growth rate is relatively stable, and there is no blindly high expectations.
This year's self-owned brand goal optimistic reporters sorted out the completion of the sales targets of various brands in 2016. In the mainstream car companies, nearly four-fifths of the car companies exceeded their sales targets in 2016, including autonomous car companies and Japanese car companies. prominent. SAIC passenger cars and Guangzhou Automobile passenger cars were among the best at 134.00% and 132.40%, respectively. Chery Automobile, Dongfeng Fengshen, Great Wall Motor, Geely Automobile, etc. also exceeded their targets, and the completion rate exceeded 100%.
In terms of quantity, Great Wall Motor sold more than one million vehicles last year. In terms of time, GAC Chuanqi achieved sales of 226,000 vehicles in just eight months. SAIC passenger cars also completed the sales target of 240,000 vehicles in advance in November last year.
It is precisely because of the popularity of the auto market last year that car companies have great expectations for this year's sales target, among which the goals set by independent brands are particularly prominent, showing strong confidence in this year's auto market.
From the data point of view, the largest increase in the self-published data of the current is the SAIC passenger car, the annual sales reached 321,700 units, in 2017, the sales target is set to 600,000 units, the target increase will be as high as 86.5%.
For the self-owned brand, Zhang Zhiyong, an auto analyst, said that although the sales data may not be comparable to the joint venture brand, the overall sales target of the independent brand was more complete last year. According to the data of the reporter, 7 out of the top 10 car sales targets in 2016 were self-owned brands, of which SAIC passenger cars and Guangzhou Automobile passenger cars performed best, with target completion rates of over 130%.
He also said that the targeted and cost-effective models launched by the independent brands are well suited to the market demand. Like SAIC's "explosive car" Roewe RX5 and GAC GS4, both of them performed well in the auto market last year and became the driving force for their own brands. And this kind of thinking will also become the boost of independent brands occupying the market this year.
In an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter, Cui Dongshu also said that under the influence of the national small-displacement purchase tax reduction policy last year, the self-owned brands benefited a lot, and with the improvement of the quality of their own brand products, the innovation and consumption of brand products Cognition has been greatly improved, and in 2017, we are also optimistic about the development of independent brands.
According to the data, the sales targets of the top ten joint venture brands are mostly set at 100,000 units - 1.4 million units. The FAW Volkswagen (excluding Audi), which ranked first, gave 1.405 million. Sales target, compared with last year's annual sales increased by 6.84%; GAC Toyota's sales last year was 421,800 units, this year's target sales growth was only 6.1%; and the biggest increase was Guangzhou Automobile Mitsubishi, plans to increase sales by 59.24% over the previous year. .
Although the brands are expected to have good sales this year, the joint venture brand has different degrees of improvement in the sales target in 2017, but it is not difficult to see that the attitude of the joint venture brand is relatively more cautious than the growth rate of the independent brand. It is a safer route.
It is understood that compared with the self-owned brands, although the sales volume of the joint venture brand reached a new high in 2016, the sales growth rate slowed down noticeably. Cui Dongshu believes that last year, the rebound in joint venture brand sales mainly relied on the high growth of a single segment. For example, the most important increment of the North and South Volkswagen is still the car, while the performance of SAIC GM's SUV is a bright spot.
In this regard, Mr. Zhang (a pseudonym), a salesperson of Dongfeng Peugeot, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that the car companies should not only consider the car market when forecasting the sales target, but also adjust according to their own circumstances. Last year, independent brands have performed well, so they have more optimistic expectations for growth. And most of the joint venture car companies are large in size, and it is too difficult to have the same growth as the autonomous car companies. However, he said that the automotive industry is a relatively healthy industry. In 2017, it will maintain a good growth trend. The auto companies themselves are constantly adjusting and developing different models to meet market requirements.
According to industry forecasts, the sales growth rate of mainstream joint ventures in 2017 may be around 7%. Cui Dongshu said, “In the case that the overall market is expected to be lower than last year, the growth rate of joint ventures in 2017 may drop to 5%”. Therefore, it is also a reasonable expectation that the joint venture brand will set its growth targets steadily and steadily.
However, he also mentioned that China's auto market faces many opportunities and challenges in 2017. Under the background of clarifying that the country will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, the overall focus of the 2017 auto policy remains. Relatively good, under the steady growth of the idea, the auto industry stimulus policy is still more than expected, the car market growth need not be too pessimistic.

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