2016 is a year of good fortune for new energy vehicles. At the national policy level, industrial policies supporting new energy vehicles were successively introduced, and new energy vehicle production qualifications were issued in less than one year. However, the fraudulent behavior of some car companies has led to joint investigations by relevant state departments. The direct result is that the local subsidy policy has not been introduced, and the central subsidy has been in the “stopping†stage because of fraudulent investigations. New energy passenger car companies told reporters that for such companies that do not have fraudulent behavior, 2016 is very difficult, subsidies have not been issued, and corporate funds have been in a tight state. "". Based on various factors, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the first 11 months of 2016 did not increase by 3 times to 4 times last year, only increased by 60.4%. On the one hand, the existing new energy production enterprises have a bad time, while on the other hand, a large number of "outsiders" have poured into the new energy-building army. Including the capital crocodile Hong Kong Wulong, the Internet company LeTV, Weilai Automobile, Dong Mingzhu, the head of the home appliance giant who just announced the car, and the communication equipment manufacturer ZTE. Without exception, these new forces in the car have chosen new energy vehicles with technical thresholds far lower than traditional cars, but in the future there are several that survive but become new problems. Even if the growth rate of new energy vehicles is much higher than that of traditional cars, the current sales of new energy vehicles account for only 1.6% of the auto market, and it will still be the world of traditional cars in the next few years. The paradox is that in order to protect the environment and solve the congestion, many cities have implemented restrictions on the purchase of traditional cars, but the policy has opened a new hole. The traditional cars below 1.6L enjoy the purchase tax reduction policy to the end of 2016. The effect of the purchase tax halving policy was immediate, which directly ended the horrible situation of the auto market in 2015 and opened a good time for the 2016 auto market. In the first 11 months, China's auto sales reached 24.548 million units, an increase of 14.1% year-on-year, 10.8 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year. At the same time when the purchase tax is about to expire, the state has extended the preferential tax on purchase tax, but the strength has weakened. Some people think this is a crisis, and some people think it is an opportunity. Self-owned brand car companies with small displacements are also taking advantage of the trend of marketing. Among them, SAIC is the first to announce that the country will reduce some subsidies and still enjoy the purchase tax halving. It is also the Dongfeng that “half the purchase tax†that the self-owned brand has achieved explosive growth this year. Next year? In fact, the country sent a big gift to its own brand as early as March this year. The four provinces of Hebei Province, Liaoning Province, Henan Province and Yunnan Province took the lead in launching a pilot project to relax the restrictions on pickup into the city. For independent brands that already occupy the dominant position in the low-to-medium SUV market, more and more cities will unblock the pickup trucks in the future, which will undoubtedly become a new explosive growth point for independent brands. The state's support for independent brands has always spared no effort. After years of development, independent brands have also undergone changes, and a number of national brands such as Chery, Great Wall and Chang'an have been born. When the Changan Auto driverless car reached the 2000km test in April this year, the industry found that the driverlessness was so close to us, and the Chinese could also have a place in the global auto industry “windowâ€. Unlike the rapid growth of independent brands, many foreign brands have felt pressure from various sources this year. Audi, which has been in the Chinese Market for 28 years, has always been a leader in the luxury car market. When the sales growth slowed down in the past two years, the Germans rushed to the hospital to try to break the luxury passenger car brand in China. There is only one joint venture's practice, which not only hurts the feelings of the original joint venture partner FAW, but also damages the interests of FAW Audi dealers. Therefore, the first collective disaster from FAW Audi dealers once made the Germans have a dilemma. The low-key SAIC Audi project came to an abrupt end after 19 days of "seeing light". It will not be known whether there will be a turnaround next year. 2016 is coming to an end and 2017 is about to open. We hope that the Chinese auto market is still booming today. We hope that the development of new energy vehicles will give Chinese auto companies an opportunity to stand at the commanding heights of the global auto industry; we hope that auto companies can respect dealers and Equal partnership to deal with disputes between manufacturers and distributors. Reduced purchase tax concessions Touch the car market nerve On the occasion of the turmoil in the automobile market, in September 2015, the State Council decided to implement a preferential policy for halving the vehicle purchase tax for passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6L and below from October 1, 2015 to December 31, 2016. . The effect was immediate. Since October, sales have swept away the previous haze, and the sales of car companies have generally increased substantially, and the sales of small-displacement models have made great contributions. The same trend continued into 2016. In the first 11 months, sales of passenger cars of 1.6 liters and below were 15.628 million, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, accounting for 72.1% of passenger car sales, an increase of 3.8 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. This year's mainstream car sales target completion situation is in line with previous expectations, most car companies in the first 11 months of sales completion rate of more than 90%, Changan Automobile, Chery Automobile also completed the annual sales target. With the deadline for the halving of the purchase tax for passenger cars of 1.6L and below on December 31 this year, the industry generally expects passenger car sales to explode in December, but there is widespread concern about the purchase. The tax halving policy overdrafts the auto market next year. It should be noted that in 2010, the state promoted the purchase tax reduction policy for models below 1.6L. In the same year, domestic automobile sales increased by 32.37% year-on-year, and passenger vehicle sales increased by 33.17%. However, in 2011, after the end of the policy, car sales increased by only 2.45%, the fastest growth rate in 13 years. Peng Bo, a partner of PricewaterhouseCoopers, said that with the exit of the stimulus policy, the risk of cold weather in 2017 is greater, and with the rapid growth of the quantity, the overall market will gradually enter a mature track. It is also the risk of seeing the "car market is cold". The state has not completely withdrawn the purchase tax preferential policy, and introduced a new policy for small-displacement car purchase tax. From January 1, 2017 to December 31, the purchase will be Passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6 liters or less are subject to a vehicle purchase tax at a rate of 7.5%. In order to cope with this adjustment of the purchase tax policy or to significantly overdraw the sales in the next quarter, auto companies have subsidized consumers by themselves, and SAIC passenger cars, GAC passenger cars, FAW-Volkswagen, etc. have introduced purchase tax reductions. Measures such as the enjoyment of the purchase tax and the extension of the subsidy time. New energy fraud company Harmful "honest car company" In addition to the 1.6L and below displacement of traditional car subsidies, the new energy vehicle subsidy policy for 2017 is adjusted to “improve the technical threshold, set the central and local subsidy ceiling to prevent the occurrence of excessive local subsidy standardsâ€, the original intention is to prevent new Energy vehicles “cheat up†and give full play to the guiding role of subsidy policies to support and strengthen. The most striking event in the auto industry in 2016 is the “cheat†of new energy vehicles. At the beginning of this year, the relevant state departments began to jointly investigate the phenomenon of fraudulent compensation for new energy vehicles, and announced the list of fraudulent supplements in September, and many problems surrounding new energy vehicles still exist. On December 20th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that it would impose penalties on new energy vehicles “cheats and subsidiesâ€, and “Jack West Bus Manufacturing Co., Ltd.â€, which is the most serious “cheatâ€, “cancel the qualification of vehicle productionâ€; on December 21, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an administrative The penalty decision letter, Shenzhen Wuzhoulong Automobile Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Wuzhou Long Automobile) two new energy vehicles have serious "cheat" problems, was ordered to stop production and sales problems, suspend new energy vehicles recommended directory declaration qualification Responsible for a six-month rectification penalty. At the same time, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Finance have further improved the financial subsidy policy. First, adjust the fiscal subsidy policy, appropriately adjust the subsidy methods for passenger cars and special vehicles, raise the technical threshold, encourage technological progress, set central and local subsidy ceilings, and prevent the occurrence of excessive local subsidy standards. From 2016, new energy vehicles will be purchased. The subsidy funds were changed from ex ante allocation to post-liquidation, and the verification of the review and promotion of funds application reports was strengthened. Second, improve the entry barriers for enterprises. The new regulations have improved the entry barriers from the aspects of enterprise design and development capabilities, manufacturing capabilities, after-sales service capabilities, product technical performance, quality assurance capabilities, etc., and strengthened safety regulatory requirements, which can effectively improve product quality and safety. Third, improve the supervision and management mechanism, in order to prevent the "fraudulent compensation" incident from happening again, and improve the three major safeguard mechanisms. The so-called city gate fire, smashing fish. New energy passenger car companies told reporters that for such companies that do not have fraudulent behavior, 2016 is very difficult, subsidies have not been issued, and corporate funds have been in a tight state. "". Diversified transformation Betting on cross-border cars Even if the country strictly controls the new energy vehicle market, it still cannot withstand the influx of "outsiders" into the new energy vehicle. The reporter noticed that, unlike the car-making movement ten years ago, this cross-border car-making enterprise not only has manufacturing companies such as Gree and Hanergy, but also Internet companies such as Tencent, LeTV, Weilai, Che and Home. There are more communication companies like ZTE. In general, there are currently five types of companies that plan to build cross-border vehicles: the first category is the parts or design companies in the traditional car industry chain, such as Xiaokang shares and Wanxiang Group (previously the Development and Reform Commission approved and approved The annual output of 50,000 extended-range pure electric passenger car projects); the second category is that Internet companies or people with Internet background rely on capital investment, such as Tencent, LeTV, etc.; the third category is the traditional car enterprises to start a new stove; fourth The class is a manufacturing enterprise represented by Gree and Foxconn; the fifth category is a new energy enterprise represented by Hanergy. Some insiders pointed out that there are so many new vehicles, mainly because the technical threshold of electric vehicles is much lower than that of fuel vehicles. In the future, not only manufacturing, but also electronic technology, rental services, etc., the future car can be standardization and modularization of the power system, personalization of the vehicle configuration, network connection, just like the intelligentization of mobile phones, and similar to ZTE. Enterprises have advantages in electronics and intelligence, which are not available in traditional auto companies. However, "electric vehicles are lower than traditional car research and development thresholds, but the end of the automotive machinery sector is not a cross-border enterprise. A good car is not as simple as assembling a mobile phone. If it is in the transformation of electric vehicles and services. Unable to break through, cross-border car companies will still be unable to hold up quickly." The above-mentioned people believe. In fact, Gree and Foxconn want to build a car because they have been perfected in their respective fields, and the car that is at the intersection of smart interconnection is undoubtedly the most attractive choice. However, in the eyes of many industry insiders, the biggest challenge for cross-border car companies is that they need huge financial support and time accumulation. The “diversification†of traditional car companies is based on the diversification of specialization and can share existing ones. Technology and production system. In addition, some auto executives also said that whether it is from the processing technology or ergonomics, the car has extremely demanding requirements. Many cross-border car companies are accustomed to "short and fast", but the special requirements for safety and performance of cars have decided to build a certain amount of car, which may bury certain contradictions and crises. In front of cross-border car companies, in addition to solving the financial problems, it is necessary to seize the time and come up with a model that can meet the needs of consumers. The reporter learned that although in June this year, SAIC Group had teamed up with Alibaba Group to launch the first Internet SUV, but the first batch of products still listed are fuel vehicles. In addition, before the real implementation of the car, cross-border car manufacturers still need to obtain the qualification of new energy car production. Up to now, only seven companies including Beiqi New Energy , Changjiang Automobile, Qiandao Automobile, Chery New Energy, Min'an Automobile, Wanxiang Group and Jiangling New Energy have obtained pure electric passenger vehicle production qualifications. As Fu Yuwu, chairman of the China Automotive Engineering Society, said, in the future, no car will be subverted, and car products are transforming into electric, intelligent and lightweight. Cross-border car companies and traditional car companies need to play their respective advantages. win. Peng Bo believes that the development track of new energy vehicle disruptive technology (such as solar energy ) shows that once the new technology's possession exceeds 1%, its development will achieve nonlinear and explosive development, far exceeding the general forecast, future consumption. The network effect contributes to the further rapid development of new energy vehicles. unmanned Become the global automotive industry Similar to the fact that new energy vehicles are unlikely to become mainstream in the short term, “autonomous drivingâ€, which has become the “window†of the global automotive industry, is still far from mass production. On April 17 this year, Changan Automobile pushed the public's heat for driverless driving to a climax. On the same day, the Changan driverless car completed the road test of 2,000 kilometers after 6 days. This ultra-long-distance actual road test has also become China's first auto company to achieve long-distance driverless driving. The reporter noted that the benefits of camera sensing technology and smart transportation planning, unmanned technology is accelerating the transition from theory to reality. Many car companies have used 2020 as a time node for automatic driving. The Haitong Securities Research Institute believes that the current consumer and investor recognition of driverless driving has increased rapidly, industrialization confidence has increased, and industrial investment has started. According to Baidu's plan, the commercialization of self-driving cars will be realized in three years, and mass production will be realized in five years. If everything can be achieved, the popularity of driverless cars in China will not be far behind. It is worth mentioning that some experts have clearly pointed out that compared with the US driverless, China's driverless technology is 5 to 10 years behind. Among them, the gap between core components and core technologies has limited the autonomy of China's driverless vehicles, which in turn has pushed up R&D costs. Li Yusheng, chief engineer of Changan Automobile Engineering Research Institute, also admitted in an interview that there is still a gap compared with foreign advanced companies. Changan’s above-mentioned road test is mainly realized through central integration. In fact, in the global driverless world, US and European companies are indeed one step ahead. At present, major developed countries have taken various measures to support enterprises to develop and test unmanned vehicles, and promote the development of the driverless automobile industry by including approval of road tests for driverless vehicles and construction of road sections for driverless vehicles. Even so, in the view of Chen Chaozhuo, director of the Sino-Swiss Traffic Safety Research Center, the progress of unmanned driving in China is still worthy of recognition. It is not objective to measure the amount of technical content simply by suppliers. “It’s like a good food doesn’t necessarily make a good dish. After all, it’s not a day’s work to adjust the integration of the OEM.†"Domestic unmanned driving is only the first step, most of them are still in the research and development test stage. In terms of sensors, it is still in a blank. Using unmanned driving to define the current test is actually not accurate and ambiguous, automatic driving It is the breakthrough direction and strength point in the future." Chen Chaozhuo told reporters. In addition, the unmanned field is still facing the challenges of network technology security, regulatory supervision, and responsibility for traffic responsibility. Peng Bo predicts that by 2020, the auto industry will begin to really shift to autonomous driving; by 2025, 20% of the new cars sold will have obvious auto-driving functions; by 2030, people can even see Autonomous vehicles without a steering wheel. Even with conservative estimates, the market penetration of autonomous vehicles is expected to be 15-20% by 2030. Audi breaks luxury passenger car Only one joint venture practice Whether it is a new energy vehicle or an unmanned technology, the current mainstream is still a traditional car. Even if traditional car companies yelled for new energy vehicles, they still stared at the traditional car market. The most typical example is that Audi is still in the growth stage of sales, in order to protect the past high market share, and to take the risk to negotiate with SAIC. On November 11th, SAIC and Audi Motor signed a cooperation framework agreement in Germany, where Volkswagen Group is headquartered. The company plans to introduce the Audi brand to Shanghai Volkswagen for production and sales, and the cooperation model is the SAIC Volkswagen Skoda model. It is reported that the first product of the cooperation between the two parties is scheduled to be released in April 2017. A stone stirred up a thousand waves. First of all, the FAW Audi dealers who felt the loss of interest jointly asked Audi: "How to establish the Sales Channels of the new sales company?" "How to balance the interests of FAW Audi dealers and SAIC Audi dealers?" It can be seen that Audi and SAIC successfully signed After the cooperation agreement, the trade-off between dealers is imminent. On November 21, 19 dealers collectively opposed the cooperation between Audi and SAIC Volkswagen, and asked Audi to give a clear answer before December 1, otherwise it will take further boycott measures; on November 30, the dealer refused to mention the car. The day before the day, the representatives of the Audi Dealers Association of China Automobile Dealers Association and the representatives of Audi AG and FAW-VW Audi Sales Division once again sat at the negotiating table. In the end, after eight hours of meetings, several parties temporarily reached a "reconciliation." Audi said it will negotiate with the dealer association and then negotiate with SAIC, and begin negotiations with Audi, SAIC and FAW Audi dealers before the end of March 2017. If necessary, FAW Group will also be invited to participate. From the internal documents formed after the November 30 meeting, it can be noticed that Audi and SAIC just suspended the negotiation of the dealer network and sales channels, not the cancellation of the project. This part of the work only needs to reach a consensus with the Audi Dealers Association. Expand. Some analysts who did not want to be named told reporters that over the years, FAW has been holding the Audi brand and eating and drinking in the high-end market. SAIC is inevitable. In fact, compared to Audi, Porsche, which had previously sparked with SAIC, may gradually enter the people's field of vision. "If FAW Audi dealers, Audi, SAIC, and FAW Group will not reach consensus on SAIC's cooperation in the next three months, SAIC and Porsche will cooperate and FAW Audi's joint venture model will remain unchanged, which will undoubtedly resolve the current situation. The situation," the person said. Lifting the pickup Can it be the next car market growth point? When Takada and the car companies affected by Takata Airbags were in ruins, the Chinese government brought a "spring breeze" to the car companies. In March of this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Public Security jointly issued the Notice on Promoting the Relaxation of Piggy Trucks into the City to Promote the Consumption of Pickup Trucks. The Notice stipulates that in order to promote the consumption of urban and rural pickup trucks, it is decided to be in Hebei and Liaoning. In Henan, Yunnan and other provinces, the pilot project to relax the pickup trucks into the city was launched. The pickup truck market that was banned from entering the city for 30 years ushered in policy loosening. The pickup truck market, which has been quiet for many years, has received wide attention. According to previous data, due to policy restrictions, pickup truck sales have been relatively low in the past 30 years. Throughout 2015, China's 16 mainstream pickup trucks sold a total of 329,000 pickup trucks, a year-on-year decline of 16.2%, and with the lifting of the pickup truck into the city, whether the pickup truck market will become the next growth point after the hot SUV market quickly became The focus of the discussion. Subsequently, the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the Ministry of Transport, the General Administration of Customs, the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, and other departments of the National Certification and Accreditation Administration issued "Several Opinions on Promoting Pilots of Parallel Imports of Automobiles" Clearly propose to optimize the process of customs declaration, customs clearance and inspection of parallel imported automobiles, improve customs clearance efficiency, reduce customs clearance costs, accelerate the implementation of pilot policies and measures for parallel import of automobiles, and promote the effectiveness of pilot work. In fact, the continuous improvement in policy has brought new development opportunities for luxury pickup trucks. In addition, the current profit margin of the crowded SUV market is down, and automakers have begun to target high-end pickup trucks. The reporter observed that since the beginning of this year, Hebei, Liaoning, Henan, and Yunnan provinces have been piloting pickup trucks into cities, and companies including Jiangling, SAIC Datong, and Jianghuai have regarded pickups as their passengers. The opportunity of the car market. However, the data shows that in the first half of this year, the sales volume of the pickup truck market still fell by 1%. In 2015, 16 mainstream pickup truck manufacturers in China sold a total of 329,000 pickup trucks, a decline of 16.2%. “In recent years, the decline has mainly been in the pickup market of less than 80,000 yuan.†A commercial vehicle market expert told reporters, “But the market growth rate of 80,000-100,000 yuan and 100,000 yuan is still relatively fast.†In his view, pickup trucks do have private consumption needs, but the current lack of 80,000-100,000 yuan, 100,000 yuan and 150,000 yuan products is a factor in suppressing this market. "Automotive consumer demand has shown a diversified trend, and the pickup truck market has been suppressed for a long time. With the liberalization of the market and the increase of products, the pickup market may be launched due to the entry of private consumption." The above experts said. However, there are different opinions on the idea of ​​lifting the promotion amount. “The pickup market is unlikely to be truly accepted by ordinary consumers.†Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, believes that there are two main restrictions on pickup trucks in the passenger car market: most of the pickup products do not meet the standards of urban roads and parking. It is not suitable for urban consumption; large and medium-sized cities can hardly lift the pickup trucks considering environmental protection and safety issues. Although pickup sales rebounded in May and June this year, in Cui Dongshu's view, this is only the cyclical fluctuation of the pickup market itself, not driven by the pilot policy of lifting the ban. With the placement of the company's product layout, the main consumer market of pickup trucks may still be concentrated in the third- and fourth-tier cities and the township market, making it difficult to break through the first- and second-tier markets. Cloud Platform Cloud Platform Core Value Service Ends Yingkou Yuyuan Industrial Co.,Lit , https://www.made--in--china.com