Global crude oil prices may tend to bottom: US West Texas Intermediate Light Crude Oil (WTI) prices reached a stage high of $107/barrel on June 20, 2014, and subsequently fell all the way. Around $40/barrel, on September 11, 2015, it was $44.76/barrel, and oil price fell by 58%. Some institutions are still more pessimistic about the trend of oil prices, and we estimate that they will start to bottom.
Global gas prices have shown signs of stabilization: New York natural gas spot prices were still at a high of $5/million BTU in March 2014, and prices were $2.43 and $2.64 on June 20, 2014 and September 11, 2015, respectively. / Million British thermal units, at present, there is a tendency to stabilize at the bottom.
The high price and long gas price has become the constraint factor of price reform: As the three major oils in the world have signed a large number of natural gas import contracts when the global oil price is at a high level, the domestic natural gas price is at a relatively high level, and the current natural gas price is implemented by the government. Downstream companies do not have the right to self-pricing. As a result, the economic benefits of the use of natural gas have disappeared, and even the phenomenon of “reverse substitution†has been detrimental to the promotion of natural gas in the downstream market. In the first half of 2015, the national natural gas consumption was 90.6 billion cubic meters, an increase of 2.1%, and the growth rate continued to be low. The lag in gas price adjustment has hindered the development of China's natural gas industry.
In 2015, the second natural gas price adjustment was on the way: On April 1, 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission lowered the price of the highest gate station of the incremental gas by 0.44 yuan per cubic meter, and the price of stored gas increased by 0.04 yuan. The price of non-civilian natural gas was consolidated. However, due to the sharp decline in oil prices and the impact of supply and demand, China's imported LNG (LNG) prices have not fallen in different degrees. The re-adjustment of gas prices has become a consensus in the market. From market information analysis, we estimate this year from October to November. The state will cut the non-residential gas price by 0.5-0.6 yuan/square, and the residential gas price system will be improved one after another, and the overall price will be raised. In addition, the provincial gas will be established in each province, and the subsequent natural gas price will be adjusted every three months to form a rapid transmission of natural gas prices. If it is realized, it will help to initially construct an effective price system and mechanism for China's natural gas and ease the survival pressure of the natural gas industry.
The future development of the LNG industry is considerable: in view of this, the marketization process of China's natural gas prices in the next two to three years can be expected, from the analysis of the signing of pipeline gas and LNG import contracts, LNG in the future for a long period of time. The supply is very abundant. If the oil price rises, or the gas price is further lowered, the oil and gas price difference will lead to the economic benefits of natural gas gradually appearing, directly driving demand upwards, then the entire natural gas industry is expected to gradually pick up. We believe that the timing of the strategic layout has arrived.
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