Japan's decline in the anniversary of its recovery in China

After the Japanese car crashed in cold weather in China in 2012, it began “counterattack” in September 2013 and has continued to recover for a whole year in September this year. From the sales data released by car companies, the upward momentum has not been sustained, but there has been a decline. There are also several new cars released this year, but it is still difficult to achieve the scheduled growth targets.

Currently, four mainstream Japanese auto makers Toyota, Nissan, Honda and Mazda have announced sales figures for September in China. Among them, Toyota and Mazda increased by a year-on-year increase of 26.1% and 5.6% respectively; Nissan and Honda saw year-on-year declines, falling by 20% and 23.1% respectively.

Accumulating the official sales figures of the four car companies, the total sales volume in September this year fell by 7.3% year-on-year to 260,500 units from 281,100 units last year. Toyota, Nissan announced sales for retail, and Honda for the sale, the comparison here is for reference only, rather than accurate calculations. From this comparison, we can see that after the first anniversary of the recovery in Japan, the Japanese began to face a downward trend.

With respect to the sales target completion rate, Mazda's 67.9% was the highest, Toyota and Nissan were 64.5% and 62.8% respectively, and Honda's 55.8% was accompanied by the final seat. With reference to past sales data and development rules, Honda could not achieve its goal; Toyota and Nissan will also need a surge of nearly 40% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year. Each month will hit a new high that has not been reached before. The difficulty is imaginable; Mazda's relative situation Better, under the premise of a higher base in the fourth quarter of last year, there is still suspense.

The rise and fall of Japanese cars this year largely revolved around the "new car" fluctuations. Before the new car went public, consumers were watching the old currency. Waiting until the new car starts to develop in the market will become the key to growth.

Just as Toyota Motor Corporation increased in August and September respectively due to the new Corolla and Ralink. However, Toyota's new vehicle magic has been "offering", from October to December, how to continue to implement a sustained increase of 38.9%, and 130,000 monthly sales, yet to wait and see. Most of the growth in the first few months of Nissan is inextricably linked to the listing of New Junjun. Honda expects new vehicles such as Bentham to improve its performance, but it may not be able to implement Honda’s soaring 50% in the fourth quarter of the year, with an average monthly sales of 132,000 vehicles. Although Mazda continues to grow under the promotion of Atitz and Engelsela, the increase is no longer significant.

This shows that although the new car is indeed the most important means of Japanese counterattack, it may not be able to become an insurance. Many internal and external factors such as the product itself, marketing channels, brand power and even political and economic background will affect sales performance.

Nissan sales in China fell 2% in September

In September 2014, Nissan delivered 93,700 vehicles in the Chinese market. In September last year, retail sales in China were 117,141, which was a year-on-year drop of 20%.

In the first three quarters of this year, Nissan sold 879,100 vehicles in China. Last year's sales were 885,642 units over the same period, but sales volume adjustments began in April 2013, excluding sales of some models. Therefore, the first three quarters of the year increased by 5.2% year-on-year.

Nissan’s goal this year is to sell 1.43 million vehicles in China, which is 12.7 million more than 12.6% in 2013. Even according to the statement of 1.4 million vehicles earlier this year, it will also increase 10.2% year-on-year. Compared with the annual target, the cumulative sales in the first three quarters were about 62.8%, compared with 61.5% for 1.43 million vehicles.

If Nissan intends to reach its goal of selling 1.4 million vehicles in China throughout the year, it will need to accumulatively sell 520,900 vehicles from October to December, an average of 173,633 vehicles per month, which exceeds Nissan’s sales volume in China for any month. Or compared with 380,633 vehicles in the fourth quarter of last year, which rose 36.9% year-on-year, reaching more than three times the annual increase.

Toyota's sales in China soared by 26% in September. New Corolla and Ralink

In September 2014, Toyota sold approximately 91,100 vehicles in the Chinese market, which was a year-on-year increase of 26.1% compared with 72,100 vehicles in September 2013. From June onwards, Toyota suffered sales decline for two consecutive months in China and began to rebound in August due to the new Corolla. In September, Lei Ling began to force again.

In the first three quarters of this year, Toyota accumulatively sold 710,300 vehicles in China, which was a year-on-year increase of 11.5% compared with 636,700 vehicles in the same period last year.

In the first three quarters, Toyota's annual sales target completion rate was 64.5%. Toyota needs to sell 389,700 cars in China in the fourth quarter of this year, which is a 38.9% year-on-year increase from the 280,600 in the same period last year. In other words, Toyota will continue to reach nearly 40% year-on-year growth in China in the coming months. This number exceeds 36.2% calculated based on the data for the previous August. It can be seen that the increase in September is not enough to share the load for the following three months.

On average, from October to December, Toyota's monthly sales in China need to reach 129,900 vehicles. The company usually sells between 70,000 and 80,000 vehicles a month in China. Even with the “Golden 9 Silver 10” or the end of the year, and the Japanese cars rebounding, the highest point is only 108,000 vehicles in December 2013.

Honda's sales in China fell by 23% in September. Dongben and CR-V were slashed

In September 2014, Honda sold 56,880 domestic cars in China, compared with 73,989 sales in September 2013, which was 23.1% lower than the same period of last year and has been falling for three consecutive months. In September, Guangzhou Automobile Honda Motor Co., Ltd. produced 41,024 domestic cars. In September last year, it sold 42,082 vehicles, a slight drop of 2.5% year-on-year. Dongfeng Honda Motor Co. sold 15,856 vehicles in September and 31,907 vehicles in September last year. It plunged 50.3%, and there was a "sales drop". The sharp drop in CR-V was an important reason.

In the first three quarters, Honda sold 502,352 domestic cars in China, compared with 497,255 domestic cars in the same period last year, an increase of 1.0% year-on-year, and it was nearly flat.

Honda sales volume in China in 2013 increased by 26.4% from 598,576 units to 7,56,882 units (here, domestic cars and 147 imported cars), setting a target of sales of 900,000 units in 2014. The increase is about 18.9%.

After three quarters of the past, Honda’s cumulative sales of 502,352 vehicles only reached 55.8%. If it is to achieve the full-year target, Honda needs to sell 397,648 cars in China in the last quarter. From October to December last year, Honda sold 259,629 vehicles in China. This year, it needs to achieve an average 53.2% year-on-year increase. This is an arduous task for Honda.

If monthly sales are to be assessed, Honda sales in China should reach 132,549 vehicles in the remaining three months. In the past year and a half, Honda's monthly sales in China have been basically between 30,000 and 80,000 vehicles, even though the historical sales record of 101,465 single-month sales in December 2013 could not meet this demand.

Mazda's sales in China rose 5.6% in September

In September 2014, Mazda sold a total of 18,818 vehicles in the Chinese market, compared with 17,821 in September of last year, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year. In September, FAW Mazda sold 8,518 vehicles, compared with 11,017 vehicles in September 2013, down 22.7% year-on-year. Last month, sales volume of Changan Mazda was 10,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 51.4% compared with 6,804 units in September 2013.

In the first three quarters of 2014, FAW Mazda sold a total of 78,911 vehicles, while sales of 84,301 units in the same period of 2013 decreased by 6.4% year-on-year. In the first three quarters, Changan Mazda sold a total of 70,480 vehicles, a sharp increase of 74.6% year-on-year, and sales of 40,366 vehicles in the same period last year.

In a joint venture, Mazda sold 149,391 domestic cars in China in the first three quarters of this year, an increase of 19.8% year-on-year and 124,667 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to September, the target completion rate was 67.9%, which is relatively high in Japanese cars.

In the last quarter of this year, Mazda needed to complete sales of 70,609 vehicles, an average of 23,536 vehicles per month. Gasgoo.com has found that, since 2012, this figure has been met only in December 2013 and January 2014.

To meet this sales target, Mazda needs sales in the fourth quarter of a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, based on 62,023 vehicles in the same period of 2013. The load is lighter than the Japanese three, but still more than doubled in September.