US shale oil revolution myth collapsed heavy reserves decreased by 96%

According to news from foreign media, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently slashed 96% of predicted reserves of Monterey, California, a shale oil field. Prior to this, Monterey's shale oil reserves were considered to account for two-thirds of the United States.

EIA said that using existing technology, only 600 million barrels of shale oil can be extracted from the Monterey Shale Formation, far less than the previously thought of 13.7 billion barrels of shale oil. According to commentators, 600 million barrels of reserves are only enough for the United States to spend 33 days.

This news made the U.S. energy industry in vain. The media used the “US shale revolution and the myth of the new golden era of energy” to describe this new data. The latest EIA research results will be released in June.

Located in California, USA, Monterey is one of the largest shale oil bases in the United States and covers an area of ​​1,750 square kilometers in southern California to the center. In 2011, a survey conducted by EIA for the U.S. Department of Energy showed that the reserves of Monterey shale oil accounted for 64% of the total shale oil reserves in the United States. In contrast, the Bakken Shale, which is the first major shale oil and gas rock formation in the United States, contains only 3.59 billion barrels of shale oil; the Eagle Ford, which ranks second, contains 3.35 billion barrels.

Shale oil is an oil resource contained in a shale-dominated shale formation, which includes oil in pores and fractures in shale, and dense carbonate rock or clastic rock adjacent layers in shale formations. Oil resources in the mezzanine.

The Monterey area has always been regarded as a rich mine. It can use the latest mining techniques to reduce the United States' need for foreign oil imports and trigger a new round of oil boom. The government had also predicted that this oil boom will bring 2.8 million new jobs to California and an additional $24.6 billion in tax revenue each year.

At the same time, with the large-scale development of shale oil, the U.S. crude oil production has been increasing steadily in the near future, and U.S. crude oil inventories have reached record highs even in the absence of strong growth in demand. According to sources, the United States is considering canceling the policy of restricting crude oil exports for nearly 40 years.

But now, all this may be "fighting." A US financial website commented on this, saying that 600 million barrels means that it is enough to supply the United States for 33 days. Oil companies may scramble to leave with their assets when they see this new conclusion.

Foreign media quoted John Staub, an EIA oil analyst, as saying that from the collected information, there was no evidence that the area had high recoverable crude oil. The agency's crude oil production projections do not take into account the geological differences in each field, as it may lead to erroneous forecasts and estimates. The EIA's adjustment to the Montelico Reserve Forecast is partly based on the analysis of the actual output of the well using the hydraulic fracturing method.

In fact, the exploitation of the Monterey Shale was previously controversial. Geological experts believe that the geological structure of the Monterey Shale in the active area of ​​Southern California has too many fractures and debris, which will affect the drilling of horizontal wells.

Reporters found out that the data that was used to make EIA survey data in 2011 was a company called Virginia engineering firm Intek.

After a new forecast of 96% decline in reserve forecasts was revealed, a senior employee of the company told the media that the company’s estimate of the federal government’s Monterey extractable shale oil was only the first step. Get better data and budget.