Vocational Truck Production Surge Likely to Continue in 2025

In light of strong demand across key industries and impending regulatory changes driven by technological advancements, vocational truck buyers are not only eager to modernize their fleets ahead of schedule but also possess the financial capability to do so, as highlighted in the latest edition of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.

“Although it’s important to avoid drawing premature conclusions based on a single month’s data, the order numbers from September indicate that preparations for securing limited production slots before the start of 2027 have already commenced. While the demand for tractors remains uncertain, the production of vocational trucks is expected to maintain its upward trajectory through 2025,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT's President and Senior Analyst.

Vieth further noted, “Throughout this year, we’ve extensively discussed the divided Class 8 market. Conversely, the U.S. and Canadian tractor markets continue to face excess capacity due to robust retail tractor sales in 2024, which have kept freight rates from experiencing significant increases. Following a ten-quarter decline, carrier profitability saw a modest uptick in Q3, thanks to steady economic growth and the gradual exit of capacity from the market. As we anticipate a slowdown in tractor sales in early 2025, one of the remaining challenges in the current recovery—rationalizing capacity—will finally come into play.”

“Even as we acknowledge the strong macroeconomic factors driving demand for heavy vocational equipment, the tractor market continues to face challenges,” concluded Vieth.

Overview of the NA CV Forecast Report

This report offers an in-depth look at the trucking industry’s future, covering current and projected demand for commercial vehicles. It includes tactical and strategic market analyses along with forecasts spanning five years. Its goal is to provide original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), suppliers, investors, and other stakeholders with the insights necessary to make informed decisions in a traditionally cyclical market. The report provides a comprehensive view of the North American market, addressing key demand drivers such as forward-looking activity metrics, orders, and backlogs. It also covers build and retail sales forecasts for medium- and heavy-duty trucks/tractors and trailers, along with macroeconomic trends in North America, freight and carrier market performance, used equipment valuation trends, and regulatory impact assessments.

About ACT Research

ACT Research is widely regarded as the premier source of data, market analysis, and forecasts for the commercial vehicle industry in North America and China. Its analytical tools are utilized by top North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as financial institutions like banks and investment firms. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have been honored with prestigious awards, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for the most accurate economic forecast over a four-year period. Additionally, ACT Research senior staff have been recognized with accolades such as the Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, the Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and the USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. For more information, visit www.actresearch.net.

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