A Summary of the Research on the "Bull Whip Effect" in Military Supply Chain

Pick To: Firstly, the research background of the "bullwhip effect" in the military supply chain is expounded. From the military supply chain, the proposal of the bullwhip effect in the general supply chain, the causes, hazards, research models, etc., the bullwhip effect The research status of the research is reviewed and commented, and finally a prospect for further research is made.

 

1. Military supply chain "bullwhip effect" research background

Since the 1980s, the supply chain around the world has been widespread concern, many researchers to explore a lot in theory and practice. Under the influence of global economic integration, the increase of user demand uncertainty and the diversity of the external environment have led to different levels of information distortion, and the bullwhip effect problem has become increasingly prominent.

In the field of military logistics research, changes in the operational form under the conditions of informationization will inevitably lead to changes in the form of logistics support. Since the 1990s, several local wars of view, difficult to find integrated joint operations have become the basic form of modern warfare, logistics presented the characteristics of diversification, three-dimensional, high loss of more demanding logistics It is crucial to achieve the timeliness and accuracy of logistics support. But the uncertainty of the battlefield environment makes it more difficult to predict the demand for logistics support. In order to ensure the uninterrupted supply of logistics, the traditional guarantee mode often has to be compensated in quantity, which will inevitably lead to the bullwhip effect, resulting in great waste of social resources. Judging from the current logistics reserve of our army, a large amount of military materials have accumulated in the logistics warehouse for a long time. The storage period is long, the mold is bad, the maintenance cost is high, and the warehouse utilization rate is low, resulting in a large waste of manpower, material resources and financial resources. Although our military has planned the usual logistics support, due to inaccurate demand forecasting, artificial exaggeration and so on, the logistical demand is gradually enlarged, that is, the bullwhip effect phenomenon. For the war to the Gulf War, for example, during which the excess reserve materials were shipped to the front lines, in transit to the Gulf region about 40,000 containers, half have no access to the results after the war, a $ 2.7 billion standby The materials were shipped back to the country. It can be seen that regardless of the logistical support in peacetime or wartime, there is a problem of "bullwhip effect" to varying degrees. The bullwhip effect phenomenon is a very common phenomenon in the supply chain, and the harm it brings is huge and may even be fatal. Especially for military wars, military suppliers will make mistakes in making decisions on the needs of the troops. Too high or too low forecasting demand will lead to oversupply or excessive inventory, resulting in huge economic losses and serious losses even resulting in war. Will make the military supplier's production plan biased, and it is easy to plan poorly when designing the scale of the facilities and outlets of factories, warehouses, distribution centers and sales points; it will also increase the inefficiency costs and worsen the users of the troops. Service Level.

2. Research status of "bullwhip effect" in military supply chain

At present, the research on the bullwhip effect in the enterprise supply chain has become increasingly mature, and related results have emerged in an endless stream. The research mainly focuses on the existence of the bullwhip effect; the cause and quantification of the bullwhip effect; the weakening of the bullwhip effect and its stability optimization. In the field of military logistics, the research on the bullwhip effect of the military supply chain is still shallow. The main relevant research results are: