Recently, the International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) announced on its official website the “Global Fertilizer Short-Term Supply and Demand Analysis 2010-2011†report. The report showed that last year's global fertilizer production, consumption, and trade were affected by the economic recovery, planting industry recovery, and rising agricultural product prices. Volume increased significantly from 2009, production increased by 11% year-on-year, and consumption increased by 5.2% year-on-year. According to the current economic situation, agricultural product prices, and the construction of new global projects, it is expected that the global fertilizer market will fully recover in 2011, market supply and demand will increase simultaneously, the potential surplus of fertilizers and raw materials will decrease, and the fertilizer trade pattern will change.
The demand for agriculture and the economy will increase and the IFA report will be analyzed. This year, the global economic situation has fully recovered, the demand for agricultural fertilizers has resumed, and due to the decline in grain output in the Commonwealth of Independent States and the United States, world grain prices have increased, and the enthusiasm of farmers for planting has been restored in the second half of 2010. . Global fertilizer consumption in 2010/11 is expected to increase by 4.7% year-on-year to 171.4 million tons (equivalent to the same below). The consumption of nitrogen fertilizer increased by 1.6% year-on-year to 104.2 million tons; the consumption of phosphate fertilizer increased by 6% to 39.8 million tons; the demand for potash fertilizer increased by 16.3% to 27.4 million tons. Except for Eastern Europe, Central Asia and West Asia, consumption of chemical fertilizers increased in other regions. Consumption in East Asia is expected to increase by 3.1 million tons, 1.5 million tons in North America, 1.3 million tons in Latin America and 1.2 million tons in South Asia. At the same time, the report believes that due to the fact that the foundation for the global economic recovery is still not solid and speculation has increased, the demand for global fertilizers remains variable. In particular, changes in food prices will directly determine the input of phosphate fertilizers and potash fertilizers for farmers. Assuming that global agricultural product prices remain stable or continue to rise, global fertilizer demand will increase by 3.8% to 177.9 million tons in 2011, of which nitrogen fertilizer growth will increase by 2.6% to 106.9 million tons; phosphate fertilizer growth by 4.7% will reach 41.7 million tons, and potash fertilizer will increase by 7.2%. It reached 29.4 million tons. In addition, IFA believes that the recovery of consumption in traditional markets such as Latin America, North America, Oceania and Western Europe will be the driving force.
Increase in supply and demand Surplus in the global economy The recovery in the global economic situation has not only led to a clear recovery of the traditional fertilizer demand market, but has also led to an increase in global fertilizer production and trade exceeding expectations. In particular, in the second half of 2010, the distribution channels of fertilizers and terminal manufacturers fell to low levels, and international trade steadily increased, resulting in a “V†rebound in fertilizer production and consumption. IFA expects that total fertilizer production in 2010 will increase by 11% year-on-year, of which synthetic ammonia will increase by 4%, phosphate rock and sulfuric acid will increase by 10%, and potash fertilizer output will surge by 57%. The most obvious is that the operating rate of existing equipment for global fertilizers reached 82% in 2010, an increase of 8 percentage points from 2009.
IFA predicts that global synthetic ammonia production will increase by 3% this year to reach 200 million tons of physical quantity. Since 25 sets of urea plants were put into operation worldwide last year and this year, the urea production capacity of last year and this year is expected to reach 181 million tons and 190 million tons. According to the 87% operating rate, the global urea production will increase from 157 million tons to 164.2 million tons. . In the second half of this year, the potential surplus of urea will reach 8.8 million tons, which will not be less than 5% of the total supply. The increase in production capacity means that exports will become more active. This year's urea export volume is expected to increase by 3 million tons, equivalent to the total amount of global trade. 9%.
In respect of phosphate fertilizers, IFA expects that global output of phosphate rock will increase by 9.6% year-on-year to reach 177.8 million tons and export volume will double to 30 million tons last year. Last year, the output of phosphoric acid was expected to reach 37 million tons of P2O5, an increase of 34 million tons year-on-year. As phosphate fertilizer projects such as Brazil, China, Saudi Arabia, and Tunisia were put into operation one after another, global phosphoric acid production capacity is expected to increase to 51 million tons P2O5 this year. IFA believes that the balance between global supply and demand for phosphoric acid will tighten in 2011 and the potential surplus will be reduced to 1.7 million tons P2O5. With the construction of phosphate fertilizers in countries such as Brazil, China, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia, global phosphate fertilizer production capacity will reach 35.7 million tons P2O5 and 38.8 million tons P2O5 respectively last year and this year.
Similarly, the recovery of potash fertilizer demand in Latin America, North America, Southeast Asia, and Western Europe increased the global supply of potash fertilizer. IFA estimated that the global potash fertilizer plant utilization rate was 73% in 2010, and the supply volume increased by 58% year-on-year to reach 50.2 million tons of potassium chloride consumption. The amount reached 52 million tons. In 2010, the global potash fertilizer production capacity is expected to increase to 72.5 million tons of potassium chloride, and 74 million tons in 2011. The new production capacity will mainly come from Canada, Chile, Israel, Jordan and Russia. The global effective production capacity is expected to reach 39 million tons of K2O by the end of 2011, but due to strong recovery of potash fertilizer demand, the potential surplus of potash will drop from 11.7 million tons of K2O in 2009 to 6.4 million tons of K2O in 2011. The recovery of the phosphate fertilizer market in 2010 also brought about a significant improvement in the sulfur market, with output expected to increase by 7% year-on-year to 51.9 million tons (equivalent to the same below), and demand increased by 7% to 50.1 million tons. The increase in sulfur for industrial use will drive an increase in the demand for sulphur, which will tighten global supply and demand of sulphur with a potential surplus of 2 million to 3 million tons.
Self-sufficiency in increasing supply and demand for trade offsets has on the one hand increased the self-sufficiency rate of fertilizers in various countries, such as China, India, Brazil, and Australia. On the other hand, it also shifts the global trade pattern, resulting in the synthesis of ammonia, sulphur, and phosphate rock between regions. Major trading activities of chemical fertilizer products have become more active. IFA expects the trade volume of synthetic ammonia, phosphate fertilizer, potash fertilizer and sulfur to increase by 4%-8% over 2010.
With the new urea and phosphate fertilizer project put into production, the global trade pattern is expected to change in the second half of this year. Brazil, India and other major importing countries will increase their self-sufficiency rate, while the production of phosphate fertilizer projects in Africa, West Asia, Asia and Latin America will also make The world's phosphate fertilizer trade will change from long-distance transportation to near-market transportation. The type of trade will also shift from raw materials to raw materials and products. IFA expects that sales of global fertilizers in 2011 will increase by 2% to 3% year-on-year to 220-220 million tons, of which sales of nitrogen fertilizers and phosphate fertilizers will increase by 3% and potash fertilizers will increase by 5%.
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