Following the first official price cut on June 1 this year, domestic refined oil prices may come down again at the beginning of next month. According to the calculation in the industry, the current domestic oil price has met the conditions of the international oil price change rate in the two major conditions for price adjustment, and only the cycle conditions are different. If the current rate of change of oil prices remains at the end of this month, then on July 1, the domestic oil price will be lowered again.
According to CBI, as of June 10, the latest crude oil price changes in the three places have fallen below -4% to -5.28%. This has enabled the country to meet the necessary conditions for adjusting the retail price of gasoline and diesel oil. According to the Oil Price Management Measures promulgated by the National Development and Reform Commission last year, the domestic product oil price adjustment must also meet the cycle conditions of 22 working days.
Analysts believe that in the short term, the rate of change in crude oil in the three places will hardly return to -4%. If the status quo is maintained, China's gasoline and diesel retail prices may once again usher in a downward adjustment on the 1st of the 22 working days (excluding the Dragon Boat Festival) after the latest price adjustment.
He also pointed out that the recent upbeat news from the United States is not enough to completely ease the concerns surrounding the sovereign debt problem in the euro zone. Assuming that the rescue plan for the Greek debt crisis is not smooth or the crisis spreads to other countries, international crude oil prices may continue to fall. . From this perspective, the international oil price rebound in the near future is still not too optimistic. If late WTI or Brent crude oil futures prices cannot break the threshold of US$78/barrel in a short period of time, but instead linger at a level of US$75-76/barrel or even lower, the rate of change of crude oil in the three places referenced by China at the end of this month will be Continue below -4%.
Considering that the new oil price formation mechanism has been implemented since last year, there is no time lag for each round of oil price reduction. Therefore, once the oil price adjustment conditions are met at the beginning of next month, the domestic retail price of refined oil products will likely respond quickly and be adjusted downwards. Industry analysis believes that once the domestic oil price is lowered again, it will directly benefit aviation, transportation and other direct fuel industries. For the auto industry, the price reduction of refined oil will stimulate the purchase of cars, but energy-saving vehicles will still be the mainstream, because in the long run, oil prices will also turn around.
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