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From January to April, the cumulative growth of trucks in commercial vehicles was 11.99%, which was 2.56 percentage points higher than that of the industry. The semi-trailer tractors, buses, and trucks with heavy trucks saw the most significant decline in non-completed vehicles, and the sales of semitrailer tractors fell by 69.21%. From a year-on-year perspective, a total of five types of subdivisions in the nine subdivision models have fallen, and four types of models have seen increases. Of the four types of models that rose, heavy trucks accounted for only one; while for the five types of models that dropped, there were three types of heavy trucks. Therefore, the overall situation of the heavy-duty truck industry is still severe and cannot be optimistic.
Chinese and foreign markets are uneven
From the sales of major domestic heavy truck manufacturers in August 2009, it can be seen that almost all of the heavy truck manufacturers have significantly decreased compared with the same period in 2008. From the ranking of heavy truck companies in 2009, the market landscape has undergone great changes. The decline of FAW Jiefang and Dongfeng commercial vehicles was relatively large; the growth of Mercedes-Benz in the north was larger and ranked one step higher; the enterprises of Steyr technology platform recaptured the market again, and also significantly expanded the battlefield, accounting for heavy trucks. Market share of 57%, of which China National Heavy Duty Truck Market share maintained nearly 30% market share for four consecutive months in 14 months, its market share is almost equal to the sum of No. 2 and No. 3, which further laid a solid foundation for Sinotruk in the heavy truck industry. Hegemony status, so recently attracted the world's many well-known auto parts companies have to Jinan Investment Office to compete with China National Heavy Duty Truck cooperation or matching; Shaanxi Heavy Truck market share increased slightly; SAIC Iveco Hongyan is also gradually restoring strength and There is a substantial increase.
Looking at foreign markets, almost all regions in North America, Europe, South America, the Middle East, and North Africa have entered the ranks of declining demand for heavy trucks. German Daimler Group recently announced that in the first quarter of 2009, the company’s net profit loss was as high as 1.29 billion euros, which is Daimler’s first “loss†in 10 years. In the same period in 2008, Daimler’s net profit was 1.33 billion euros. Among them, the decline in sales of the truck sector is particularly prominent. According to the financial report, Daimler's truck sales in the first quarter was 4.9 billion euros, a decrease of 22% and a loss of 142 million euros. In the first quarter financial report of German heavy truck manufacturer Man, the Man Group's net profit decreased to US$ 321 million compared with US$ 322 million in the same period of 2008, a decrease of 43.8%; of which, MAN’s commercial vehicle orders decreased by 61% year-on-year. %. Swedish commercial vehicle manufacturer Scania, the first quarter net profit fell 93% compared to the same period in 2008, to 179 million Swedish kronor; the main reason for this status is the sharp decline in orders, Scania sales in the first quarter The amount was SEK 15.86 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 28%; the delivery volume was 11,304 units, a decrease of 41%. Another famous truck manufacturer in Sweden, Volvo's global sales in February fell 51% year-on-year. Volvo’s largest single market fell by 63% in Europe, 6% in North America, and 47% in Asia. Volvo Group's first-quarter financial report showed that sales in the first quarter were only SEK 56.1 billion, a 27% year-on-year decrease. SEK 4.5 billion; Due to the sharp drop in global market demand, Volvo suffered economic turmoil in Europe, North America, and Asia, making this quarter the worst-ever quarter in Volvo's history.
China National Heavy Duty Truck Group: In 2009, China National Heavy Duty Truck set its own goal of 125,000 vehicles, of which 20,000 were to ensure the export of vehicles and strive to reach 25,000 vehicles. What impressed people in 2008 was the shock wave that China National Heavy Duty Auto's independently-innovated EGR brought to the heavy-duty card market. It forced foreign suppliers and domestic heavy-duty truck manufacturers to greatly benefit consumers. In 2009, with the help of the cost advantage of EGR products, China National Heavy Duty Truck continued to maintain its dominant position in the heavy-duty truck market. In the heavy-duty truck market, it also drastically opened up the distance with competitors. China National Heavy Duty Truck gradually upgraded the heavy truck gold industrial chain and acquired, controlled and deployed Jinan Special Purpose Vehicles, Qingdao Special Purpose Vehicles, Tai Anton Yue Special Purpose Vehicles, Guangxi Liuzhou Transportation Special Purpose Vehicles, Ningde Fujian Special Purpose Vehicles, and Hubei Warwick Special Purpose Vehicles. Sichuan Mianyang Southwest special vehicles and other bases.
FAW Liberation: In 2009, FAW liberated 107,000 vehicles for its own purpose. In 2008, FAW liberated heavy trucks sold 105,000 vehicles. It can be seen that the liberation of FAW is not very optimistic about this year's market. In fact, this was also confirmed by the sales figures for the year of 2009. The drop in the weight of the liberation of heavy trucks by FAW was very obvious, which was a decrease of 56.72% compared with the same period in 2008. The off-season of heavy trucks in 2009 will soon come. It will take some time for the market to pick up. The future competition will become even fiercer. It is expected that the negative growth will be a foregone conclusion. It is very difficult for FAW to complete its annual goals and it is urgent to take more active and effective measures to stop it. Continue the downward trend.
Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles: In 2008, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles sold 920,280 heavy trucks and Dongfeng Tianlong sold 40,000 vehicles throughout the year, an increase of more than 80% year-on-year. Although Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle has not completed its planned goal, it is also commendable in the second place in the heavy truck industry. In 2009, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle set its own goal to sell 110,000 heavy trucks. From the 2009 sales data, this goal is difficult to achieve. In August 2009, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles sold 230.93 million heavy trucks, a decrease of 52.13% year-on-year. Although it is the first camp of heavy trucks, it is very dangerous if it does not actively take effective measures.
Shaanxi Zhongqi: In 2008, Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck sold 66,000 heavy trucks, of which 13,000 were exported. In 2009, Shaanxi Heavy-Duty Automobile set an annual sales target of 75,000 units for itself. In order to achieve this goal, Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck Co., Ltd. actively launched 09 second-generation country III “Smart Saver King†heavy trucks, which is Cummins’ “full-time champion + save champion†double crown.
In order to further expand its export share, it has also actively launched the "SHACMAN" heavy truck brand. In order to enhance the international influence of the "SHACMAN" brand, Shaanxi Auto has continued to optimize its product mix, based on the division of climate regions, according to the requirements of different users. Strengthen the performance of hot zone, cold zone, plateau and other specialty products; and will further deepen the "service-based manufacturing" concept.
Beiqi Foton: In 2009, Beiqi Foton set a goal for itself to sell 60,000 heavy trucks. In 2008, the total sales volume of Foton Motor exceeded 400,000 vehicles, and sales in the domestic commercial vehicle market ranked first for five consecutive years. Among them, Auman heavy trucks produced and sold 57,000 vehicles, which was only 1,000 vehicles out of the 58,000 vehicles set at the beginning of the year. In August 2009, the total sales of medium- and heavy-duty trucks (including non-integrated vehicles) at Beiqi Foton were 15,294 vehicles, and the operation was fairly stable. Although the fifth position of heavy trucks was saved, the market share dropped by a large margin and fell by 37.72% compared with the same period in 2008; therefore, it is not optimistic to complete the 2009 target. Beiqi Foton has long been aware of its lack of key parts and components, in order to consolidate its position to further expand its market share and to dominate the heavy truck industry in the future, Beiqi Foton is actively advancing with the world while accelerating investment in key components. The heavy truck predators Daimler cooperated and launched the new product Auman Intelligent 2009 in a timely manner. It includes the 6 series, 9 series and the Jones series three series of more than 30 models, has covered load dump trucks, tractors, trucks and special vehicles Wait for the full range of models.
North Mercedes-Benz: In 2009, the North Mercedes-Benz set a target of 30,000 vehicles for itself. In 2008, the North Mercedes-Benz was one of the best companies in the world, not only fulfilling its annual sales target of 25,000 units in advance, but also selling 2.5038 million in two. The industry ranked sixth, an increase of 67%, and became the only heavy truck company to complete its annual target. Looking from the situation in 2009, North Mercedes-Benz also failed to survive the financial crisis. In August 2009, the North Mercedes-Benz cumulative sales of 9320 heavy trucks, compared with the same period in 2008 decreased by 8.00%.
SAIC Iveco Hongyan: In 2008, SAIC Iveco Hongyan completed 20,522 vehicles, which is not easy for companies that are still in a period of consolidation and adjustment. In 2009, SAIC Iveco Hongyan set itself a goal of 28,000 vehicles. This goal is not too high nor too low. In order to complete the set targets for 2009, Red Rock, which has long been dormant, has launched new products such as Hongyan Special Paunch and Hongyan Jieshi with confidence. We hope to use IVECO technology and the TRAKKER brand to enhance Hongyan’s influence in the heavy truck field and recapture previously Lost market. However, from the sales data for the month of 2009, SAIC Iveco Hongyan still has some difficulty in achieving the 2009 target, and it still needs to step up its efforts.
Anhui Valin: In 2008, Valin sales reached 12,000, ranking eighth in the heavy truck industry. In 2009, Anhui Hualing set itself a target of 15,000 units. In the month of 2009, it had sold 5,214 heavy trucks, an increase of 6.30% compared with the same period of 2008. This is a rare increase in the heavy truck industry, and it has a market share. raised dramatically. Now Hualing's production and management situation is improving month by month. In 2009, it has now sold more than 1,500 heavy trucks for nearly two months.
Forecast of Development Situation in 2009
In 2009, China’s heavy truck market entered a return period of “reasonably and steadily deceleratingâ€. The slowdown in development momentum is certain. Compared with 2008, the overall trend in 2009 was down by about 15% to 20%. Heavy truck production and sales are expected to be realized throughout the year. The amount of 40.45 million vehicles.
The positive aspects of concrete performance include:
First, the country’s active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, and the package of plans to expand domestic demand and promote stable and rapid economic development have achieved initial success. Positive changes have taken place in the economic operation and the situation is better than expected; the State Council has issued ten measures. Investing 4 trillion yuan will stimulate domestic demand on a large scale and stimulate the consumption of heavy trucks.
Second, the “Detailed Planning Regulations for the Adjustment and Revitalization of the Automobile Industry†promulgated by the state explicitly requires “to share more than 25% of heavy trucks in trucksâ€. From the sales data in this year, the total sales of medium and heavy trucks accounted for only 18.94% of the total sales of trucks, of which heavy trucks (including tractors) accounted for only 10.43%, leaving a lot of room for the market target of 25%.
Third, since January 1, 2009, China has expanded the scope of value-added tax transformation, allowing fixed assets to be taxed, encouraging enterprises to increase investment and promote technological progress and a sharp decline in international oil prices, which will, to some extent, stimulate the use of heavy trucks. demand.
Fourth, the introduction of local governments to support the establishment of a fleet that meets the requirements of environmental protection will, to a certain extent, stimulate the demand for national III and State IV heavy trucks. For example, the Beijing Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau, the Traffic and Communications Commission, and the Traffic Management Bureau have jointly issued regulations restricting the passage of yellow-labeled vehicles within the Fifth Ring Road.
Fifth, the measures taken by companies to stimulate consumption: Auto consumption credit is one of the most basic businesses of auto finance. In order to meet the market demand for loans and car purchases, domestic demand will be stimulated to meet user needs, and sales channels will be broadened. Together with financial companies, they will jointly launch a “car loan insurance†business to stimulate demand for their own branded automotive products. From November 2008, China National Heavy Duty Truck and China Pacific Property Insurance Co., Ltd. and China People's Property Insurance Co., Ltd. signed a "car loan guarantee insurance" business cooperation agreement, from China National Heavy Truck Finance Company to the purchase of CNHTC products of natural persons And corporate end users provided a total of 3.5 billion yuan in auto consumer credit, and two insurance companies provided performance guarantee insurance for Sinotruk. China National Heavy Duty Trucks has opened up a new financing channel for users, and compared with banks and corporate finance companies, the speed of issuing loans is faster, and transfer is more convenient, which greatly shortens the time for users to apply for loans. In the future, users can purchase cars from the dealership directly through the dealership. The insurance company is responsible for reviewing the user's qualifications and credit repayment ability. After the approval, the company will sign a contractual guarantee insurance with the user. China National SINOTRUK Finance Co., Ltd. can issue a personal mortgage loan whose amount does not exceed 60% of the total car price for a qualified natural person user for a maximum period of two years. After the occurrence of an insurance accident, the insurance company shall fulfill its liability as provided for in the insurance clause.
Sixth, China has gradually and orderly cancelled major phased achievements in the government repayment of second-grade highway tolls. Among them, 12 provinces in Jilin, Hebei, Henan, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Hunan, Liaoning, Fujian, Jiangxi, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui have all canceled the government reimbursement of secondary road tolls.
Seventh, the reconstruction of the Sichuan earthquake zone, the 2010 World Expo in Shanghai and the Asian Games in Guangzhou will further increase the demand for heavy trucks.
The disadvantages are:
First, the continued deepening and expansion of the financial crisis will further reduce the market demand for heavy trucks. Due to the impact of the economic environment, the market's demand for coal, electricity, and steel has been greatly reduced, resulting in a sluggish freight market, which in turn has resulted in a lack of rigid demand for vehicles. Up to 60% of freight vehicles in Shanxi and other regions have been shut down; ports, logistics, The overall shrinkage of the mines, real estate projects and other markets are in an overall blow to the heavy truck industry.
Second, the implementation of the fuel tax on January 1, 2009 will bring tremendous impact to the transportation industry. Follow the principle of using multiple payments (taxes) and paying less (less tax). The mileage of truck users is long, and some users even do not take a break. The fuel cost is the largest part of all cost components. The implementation of fuel tax will inevitably lead to a substantial increase in the cost of current heavy truck users. This reduces the desire to use the heavy truck as a means of production for quick money making users.
Thirdly, due to the financial crisis, the demand for heavy trucks in foreign markets is further reduced and is expected to drop by 20% and 30% from 2008.
The year 2009 was a life-or-death year for heavy-duty truck companies, and it was doomed to be an extraordinary year. Although there was a drop of 33.87% in the year-on-year period in 2009 and in the same period of last year, after all, in aggregate, more than 160,000 heavy-duty trucks were manufactured and sold in 14 months. Now that the international financial crisis is still spreading, the impact on the Chinese economy is still deepening; the foundation for China’s economic recovery is still not stable, and the internal and external environment is still very severe; therefore, the market situation in the future in 2009 is still not optimistic for heavy truck manufacturers.